Travis Sawchik

Last week, we ranked where Juan Soto fits best. Soto is in a class by himself this offseason, but he's not the only difference-maker available on the open mark.We now turn our attention to the next tier of star MLB free agents. (We are not including Roki Sasaki, who's restricted by the international bonus pool and is not part of the MLB free-agent class.)The following are the top 10 free agents beyond Soto. The rankings were determined by averaging the MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs crowdsourced contract projections. Who has the motivation, need, and projected payroll space to sign these stars?Corbin Burnes !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Rob Tringali / Getty ImagesBurnes is widely viewed as the best arm available. He ranks second behind only Zack Wheeler in fWAR (22.7 to 19.2) since 2021.Very few pitchers have the depth of Burnes' arsenal. That includes his unicorn pitch, a darting mid-90s cutter.Very few have been as durable as Burnes. He's averaged 189 innings per season over the last four seasons, which ranks just behind Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, and Wheeler.There are some red flags with Burnes, who just turned 30. Notably, his ability to miss bats is in decline. His strikeout-minus-walk rate fell from an elite mark of 30.4% in 2021 to 24.1% in 2022, 17.1% in 2023, and 17% last season. (The MLB league average was 14.4% in 2024.)While he's no longer super-elite, he's still a good bet to be one of the game's best pitchers over the next couple of seasons.The Mets need top-end pitching, and owner Steve Cohen has recently shown a willingness to invest in much older arms than Burnes (such as Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander). Moreover, Mets general manager David Stearns has a history with Burnes from their time with the Milwaukee Brewers, and he reportedly wants to reunite with Burnes.Alex Bregman !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rGreat teams generally have to make fewer decisions between rostering bat- or glove-first players. They have major leaguers that can do both. The Blue Jays need more such players to mix in with their emerging youth while maximizing the last year they have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette under contract.Adding Bregman, who turns 31 in March, would fill third base with a two-way player much like Matt Chapman. That'd allow Guerrero to remain at first base while placing Ernie Clement in a super-utility role. Bregman said he's also open to playing second base, opening up further optionality for whoever signs him.Rogers Centre would also be a great fit for Bregman's extreme fly-ball, pull-heavy approach. Statcast projects Bregman would've hit more home runs as a Blue Jay last season (29) compared to his output in Houston (26).Toronto must strengthen and deepen its lineup, which ranked 23rd in the majors in runs scored last season, while not surrendering defensive value. Bregman is one of the best options to accomplish just that.Willy Adames !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r John Fisher / Getty ImagesAtlanta shortstops produced 0.6 WAR with a 71 wRC+ mark last season, ahead of only Oakland and Detroit.The Braves' lineup suffered massive regression last year. They need it to return to 2023 levels to compete for the division title.Adames, 29, can help it do just that. He posted career highs in doubles, home runs, RBI, and steals in 2024.Blake Snell !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rOnly Coors Field has been a more favorable venue than Fenway Park for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons, so it makes sense for the Red Sox to target lefty pitchers. There are three quality options available on the open market: Snell, Max Fried, and Sean Manaea.Snell, who turns 32 in December, is an excellent but sometimes erratic pitcher. That was again the case this season when he posted a 6.31 ERA in the first half and a 1.45 mark in the second half. But the industry can perhaps throw the first half out as Snell missed much of spring training waiting for a contract.Snell remains one of the game's premier lefties, and Boston needs more arms to complement an emerging young lineup.Max Fried!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Ronald Martinez / Getty ImagesCamden Yards, like Fenway Park, owns extreme splits for batters. It's much more favorable for left-handed bats after renovations to the left-field wall tamped down home-run production from righties. Baltimore is a great fit for southpaws who can neutralize left-handed power.If the Orioles were ever going to spend, now would be the time. New owner David Rubenstein seems much more likely than the Angelos family to do so. Fried would be an ideal fit to replace Burnes and supplement the excellent young lineup.The lefty is more of a health risk than Burnes, and he'll turn 32 in January, but he's remarkably consistent. Fried hasn't posted an ERA north of 3.25 since 2020 or an FIP worse than 3.33. He's also due for some positive regression as his walk rate (8%) was above his career average of 6.8%.There's a chance Fried continues to refine his skill set, especially if he lands with an elite player development team like Baltimore. He could be something like early-to-mid-30s Cliff Lee for the team that signs him, and that's a difference-maker.Pete Alonso !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Elsa / Getty ImagesOn one hand, there's no doubting Alonso's slugging prowess. Only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber have hit more home runs than him over the last five seasons. And if a contender has its eyes on postseason play, home runs play up even more in October.On the other hand, Alonso doesn't create much value outside of his slugging. He's also entering his age-30 season. While he's hardly ancient, long-term deals to first basemen don't always work out well (see Albert Pujols, Angels).If the Yankees don't retain Soto, they should be highly motivated to add another impact bat, especially at first base.Consider how poor New York was at first base last season:Yankees first basemen ranked last in the majors in wRC+ (71), their worst mark since 1913.They also ranked 30th in batting average (.206), the second worst in franchise history.And they were ranked 30th in slugging (.312), 30th in on-base percentage (.282), and 27th in HRs (17).Moreover, with an aging core of key players - Judge will be 33 next season, Gerrit Cole will be 34, and Giancarlo Stanton will be 35 - Alonso fits into a win-now mindset.Jack Flaherty !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rThe Tigers were operating rationally when they traded Flaherty at the deadline as they owned miniscule playoff chances. But if they'd retained the 29-year-old for a remarkable late-season surge that nearly saw them get into the ALCS, perhaps they would've made the next step. Now Detroit can get him back.The Tigers have a low payroll and should be able to add impact players. Just as with Kansas City last year, there's value in adding a veteran presence to an emerging young rotation.Anthony Santander!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rSantander ought to fit with several teams: He's a 30-year-old switch-hitter who's been one of the most consistent bats in the game over the last three seasons, and he's coming off a 44-homer campaign. But his profile fits best in a place that favors pull power. Sorry, Kansas City.According to BaseballSavant estimates, only Great American Ball Park would fit Santander better than Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have shown a willingness to trade gloves for bats, aided by the tight dimensions of their ballpark. Santander in the center of the lineup might give them the firepower to compete with the Dodgers in a postseason series.Sean Manaea !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Rob Tringali / Getty ImagesManaea, 32, improved his stuff after an offseason trip to Driveline in the 2022-23 offseason and returned to the rotation full time with the Mets last season. New York can't afford to lose him, and Cohen ought to be willing to match and exceed any offer.Teoscar Hernández !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rIt remains to be seen whether Reds ownership will pay up for anyone in free agency. However, Cincinnati currently owes little guaranteed money, and Reds right fielders ranked 23rd in the majors last season with a lowly 89 wRC+.Hernández, 32, projected to hit 43 homers in Cincinnati last season, the best among all MLB parks for his batted-ball profile. The Reds play in an incredibly favorable hitter's park and need to take advantage of it.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was named the NL Rookie of the Year on Monday.

One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered around someone working behind the scenes - and occasionally in front of the cameras.Uber-agent Scott Boras represents eight of the consensus top 20 free agents, and five at the top of the list: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso.Rarely does one agent have so much influence.Last offseason, he represented a collection of stars known as the "Boras Five" - Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez. This year's crop is even more accomplished.How Boras advises his clients this offseason will determine which clubs win and lose in terms of roster improvement, and also whether he enjoys a personal bounce-back performance. Newsday / Getty ImagesBoras isn't used to losing, but last winter represented one of the few Ls on his resume.At the start of the offseason, FanGraphs' crowdsourcing predictions forecast the "Boras Five" would sign for a combined $466 million. Those players' actual contracts totaled just $233 million guaranteed.That was a significant and rare miss for Boras, who'd been an outlier in terms of both signing clients to record deals in terms of total dollars and beating market expectations.Macro-level factors, like the unraveling of the sport's cable TV ecosystem, were at play last winter. Local TV revenues account for about a quarter of team earnings, so that uncertainty likely played a role in reducing the amount spent by clubs, even in Ohtani mania. Spending on free agency last offseason ($2.96 billion), was down nearly a billion dollars from the previous year ($3.9 billion)."(Last offseason) 10 teams decided to lower their budgets from '23," Boras told theScore in March when asked about his clients' contract shortfalls. "There was a billion dollars taken out of the free-agent market."What I've done with players like Carlos Correa - when the markets are not there, we got him a three-year guarantee for about $100 million (in 2022). He took a contract with optionality (a first-year opt-out)," Boras explained. "The very next market, they were spending, and there was more demand for his services. He ended up getting a contract for $200 million with a chance to make an additional $70 million. He converted a situation with optionality into something that more than doubled the value (of the 2022 deal)." Mike Stobe / Getty ImagesSnell is pursuing a path similar to Correa's. He opted out of the deal he signed last March, when he was coming off winning the NL Cy Young Award, to test the waters again. (Snell and Boras turned down a $150-million offer from the Yankees last winter before settling for a shorter-term deal with the Giants.)Bellinger, on the other hand, elected to remain with the Cubs for 2025. Not everyone trusts there will be a market rebound, and Bellinger is coming off a so-so campaign.Perhaps the market conditions have improved. There's less uncertainty related to regional television deals, but many clubs have taken smaller payouts to stay with Diamond Sports Group now that it's exited bankruptcy. Others are striking out on their own in partnership with MLB.It'll be interesting to see if Boras' approach is any different. He's certainly not lowering his initial demands.Ken Rosenthal reported Boras is seeking a guarantee for Bregman north of $300 million, nearly double what FanGraphs expects ($162 million).But the big question remains how long Boras is willing to advise his clients to wait, especially after irking Montgomery last offseason and losing him as a client.Boras, historically, is comfortable playing the waiting game, and generally plays it well."People call me all the time and say, 'Man, your players aren't signed yet.' Well, it doesn't really matter what time dinner is when you're the steak," Boras said in 2013. Mitchell Leff / Getty ImagesDuring the 2018-19 offseason, Boras clients Manny Machado and Bryce Harper - the last two under-26 stars to hit the open market before Soto - didn't sign until March. They became the first free agents to sign $300-million deals.But they were steaks.When that approach falters, players are squeezed. The melting offseason clock favors clubs more and more as spring training camps open.Last winter, Montgomery was worth more than the one-year, $25-million deal with a $22.5-million option he signed with Arizona in late March. Public forecasts had him signing for more than $100 million. He blamed the late start to his preparation for his down campaign. After the worst year of his career, he exercised the option rather than hit free agency again.Montgomery later fired Boras and told the Boston Herald he felt Boras "kind of butchered" his free agency. Rich Schultz / Getty ImagesThere was a lot of squeezing in the market last offseason, in part because of Boras.The first 60 days of last offseason featured 44 free agent signings, well short of the previous 10-year average of 58.7. The guaranteed number of seasons awarded (97) was also below the 10-year average of 116 for the first two months of the offseason. And the market never warmed up.But will Boras change his approach? Will teams be more aggressive with large-revenue clubs like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, seemingly incentivized to improve their rosters? And how will things change if Soto signs early, as the industry expects? It'll be a fascinating offseason. Free-agent players as a whole need a rebound, and so, too, does the game's top agent.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

Whenever a contending large-market team signs a major free agent, there are often concerns and complaints about MLB's financial playing field.

The Los Angeles Angels were the most aggressive club early this offseason prior to the Dodgers signing Blake Snell. Pretty wild stuff, right?It's early - very early! - but the Angels account for four of the 12 free-agent signings to date. They've also made several trades, most notably adding Jorge Soler.But, and I can't stress this enough, why?Why are the Angels the aggressors? They're coming off a 99-loss season. They roster aging, injury-prone players like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Their farm system remains poor. Shouldn't they be focused on rebuilding, on overhauling their organization? The following is a conversation - with myself - about what the perplexing Angels are up to. Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesQ: Did you have the Angels winning the offseason entering Tuesday?A: I didn't. But it's nice to see a team being aggressive right out of the gate. Some general managers, like Atlanta's Alex Anthopoulos, believe the best opportunities exist early in the offseason, and it was the Braves who traded Soler to the Angels.MLB should welcome more teams trying to compete. But in the Angels' case, the early moves feel like adding empty calories in terms of putting a contender on the field.Q: Are the transactions an indicator of mounting frustration, especially after watching Shohei Ohtani move across town and win a ring? Are the Angels delusional?A: If we squint, there's a modest 2025 bull case for optimists in Orange County. Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty ImagesFor starters, the Houston Astros are still good but in decline from their MLB superpower status. The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are talented but flawed. The A's have no designs on contending, regardless of where they play.The West was the AL's weakest division in 2024 and it may be again in 2025.Los Angeles is also likely to benefit from regression to the mean. We typically hear regression and think "back to earth," but, in this case, because they were so poor on the field last year, they're due to move toward the MLB average.There's one public projection available at the moment (Steamer) and it forecasts that the Angels' returning players will enjoy the second-best WAR improvement compared to their 2024 totals. Good news!Of course, the projection includes 574 plate appearances and star-level performance from Trout, a workload level he hasn't reached since 2019.Hope is required. Mandatory, even. But if one could simulate the 2025 season a thousand times, the Angels would walk away with a few division titles - that's baseball. Significant external help would bolster their long-shot chances, of course.And maybe they know something we don't that explains these moves, something like being contenders for Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki.Q: What can we expect from their additions?A: Not much. They've raised their floor, but it's not enough. Four of their additions - Kevin Newman, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d'Arnaud, and Soler - are projected to combine for 3.9 WAR, so that's a limited improvement. Newman and d'Arnaud should upgrade the bench, but only Soler profiles as a regular.While the investment in Hendricks is modest (one year, $2.5 million), he posted a 5.92 ERA last year and his skills are eroding over multiple seasons.I do like the Yusei Kikuchi signing - he's a quality mid-rotation arm for a hopeful contender. The problem: He's Anaheim's ace. Before his signing, only the Athletics and Colorado Rockies were projected to have weaker rotations. That's a major issue. Cole Burston / Getty ImagesHis contract (three years, $63 million) is a bit of an overpay compared to FanGraphs' estimates (three years, $54 million), but given California's state taxes - and the state of the Angels - they must overpay for free-agent talent. Kikuchi could have trade value, too, assuming L.A. continues to struggle. The Toronto Blue Jays netted a solid return for him as a rental at this past summer's trade deadline.Q: It's easy to dunk on the Angels in recent years, but with so many teams seemingly not interested in competing, shouldn't we welcome and celebrate any effort by clubs?A: Yes. In theory. Unfortunately, it's not clear how serious this contention attempt is. Fan bases shouldn't want misguided efforts that delay a club's return to relevance.A serious win-through-spending effort would look more like what the Rangers did in the 2021-22 offseason. That's when they signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who were at the peak of their star-level powers, to massive free-agent deals. They were core players for Texas' 2023 World Series team a year later. The Dodgers added megastars in free agency in recent offseasons, too.But the Angels aren't courting Juan Soto and/or Corbin Burnes this offseason. They're engaged in half measures, at least to date.What they should be focused on, above all else, is building a healthier organization from top to bottom.They'd be better off in the long run by accumulating more prospects, as much draft capital, and as many bonus dollars as possible. But it's not clear ownership wants to accept a long-term plan. Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesFor instance, the club would have been better off trading Ohtani in the summer of 2023 - or even earlier - instead of chasing unlikely playoff chances and allowing him to leave for nothing.The Angels haven't demonstrated a willingness to play the long game. At all. Q: So, you don't believe this shortcut is going to work?A: Nope, and the root issue is - again! - their homegrown base isn't strong enough, and it isn't going to get stronger any time soon.Consider their farm-system ranking by MLB Pipeline at the end of each season: 2022: 30th 2023: 28th 2024: 29th Successful teams, even those with top payrolls like the Dodgers, have a strong draft-and-development system as their foundation.Q: So, what you're actually saying is: Free Mike Trout? A: It's a monumental baseball tragedy that one of the best players of this era has reached the postseason once, way back in 2014, when he compiled 15 plate appearances in an ALDS against the Royals.The sad reality: Trout will likely need to wear another uniform for the baseball world to see him on the postseason stage again. Anaheim's plan is unlikely to come together.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

Major League Baseball faces a structural challenge when it comes to marketing its stars that other North American pro sports leagues don't face. The obstacle? It's more democratic when it comes to the distribution of playing time.A star NBA player can theoretically take every shot. NFL quarterbacks handle the football on virtually every offensive snap. The best NHL players get the lion's share of ice time.But in baseball, the best hitters have to wait their turn like everyone else. Ace pitchers are tied to operating in five-man rotations during the regular season. The best bullpen arms can't pitch every day.Opportunity is spread more evenly, so the influence of star power is relatively limited.It is through that lens in which we can understand some of the appeal behind the so-called "golden at-bat." MLB commissioner Rob Manfred shared the idea when he appeared on "The Varsity" podcast with Puck's John Ourand in October, and it was revisited this week by Jayson Stark of the Athletic."There are a variety of (rule changes) that are being talked about," Manfred told Ourand. "One of them - there was a little buzz around it at an owners' meeting - was the idea of a golden at-bat." Megan Briggs / Getty ImagesSuch a rule would allow a team to send any hitter to the plate at a key moment, even if it's not his turn.Stark reported that variations of the rule are being discussed, such as limiting a golden at-bat to trailing teams or later innings, and how many would be allowed.For now, it's just an idea. Time will tell if a consensus forms among decision-makers.Some will reason that if an NBA team can give the ball to its best scorer and create an isolation opportunity with the final seconds melting off the clock, why not try something like that in baseball?Now, I want to make it clear I am for MLB experimenting. I was in favor of the pitch clock. There was too much time being wasted by both pitchers and hitters, not only between pitches but often between plate appearances. The declining pace of play had become a problem. And there's evidence it was the right decision. Attendance improved in the two years after adding the clock following a nearly two-decade decline at the turnstiles.But MLB still needs to reach more fans and create new ones. The league ceded its place atop the North American sporting hierarchy to the NFL a long time ago, and the NBA's recent national TV deals dwarf baseball's. MLB should try different things.But it shouldn't try the golden at-bat.There are different kinds of rule changes. Some seek to address issues negatively impacting the sport, like the slowing pace of play in MLB. The NBA has had a shot clock since the 1950s, and college basketball finally added one in 1985. MLB enlarged the size of the bases two years ago as well.And then there are rule changes that fundamentally change the nature of the game. Those should only be considered in the case of an existential crisis. Baseball hit such a point in 1968 when, after years of offensive decline, it lowered the height of the mound by two inches for the 1969 season. A golden at-bat would radically change how the game is played, how pitchers work through lineups, and how teams construct their lineups to maximize their best bats. There would be fewer moments for the Bucky Dents of the world.While there have been rule changes that dictate where or how players can perform on the field, from raising and lowering mounds to banning infield shifts, those are uniform changes that affect all teams equally, or nearly equally, and were not meant to change the fundamentals of the game. If anything, the shift ban and pitch clock were implemented to create a game more like the one that was played for most of its history.The golden at-bat would also increase the imbalance between large- and small-budget clubs.Juan Soto is likely to land a record deal in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars this winter. Imagine what he would earn in a world with a golden at-bat? That Soto can only bat once every nine plate appearances is one of the few parity-drivers in the game. Newsday / Getty ImagesA slippery slope is also created when legislation is added to the baseball rule book. What stops the golden at-bat from becoming multiple golden at-bats during the course of a game?Moreover, baseball is rooted in its historical numbers, more than any other sport. Milestones like 500 home runs in a career, or 60 in a season, are benchmarks. If Aaron Judge could bat an additional 150 times per season - and often with runners on base - we would enter a new era of trying to contextualize player performance against the game's history.We must also consider that no one was asking for this. Fans were not clamoring for such a change.Yes, MLB is ultimately an entertainment product. But if the sport wants to make real change, if it wants to attract new fans and bring back old ones, it must confront larger issues - like the financial gulf between the haves and have-nots - rather than resort to gimmicks.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

"OMG" was a rallying cry for the New York Mets during their remarkable second-half surge, and OMG took on a new meaning as the details of Soto's record 15-year, $765-million deal emerged Sunday night.

What does a front office do when it is trying but unable, for whatever reason, to compete in free agency? Make a good, old-fashioned baseball trade, of course.That is what the Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, and Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to do Tuesday night, executing what became a three-way deal.First, the Blue Jays surprised the baseball world by acquiring 2023 Platinum Glove winner Andrés Giménez and a relief pitcher from the Guardians for promising left-handed hitting infielder Spencer Horwitz and a fringe outfield prospect. Mark Blinch / Getty ImagesLater in the night, the Guardians flipped Horwitz to Pittsburgh for starting pitcher Luis Ortiz and a pair of mid-tier pitching prospects.What's fascinating about this trade is the teams involved are trying to compete in 2025, and all of them dealt at least partially from strengths on their major-league rosters to address needs.As Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto told theScore in 2023, teams should trade more often because they all have different organizational strengths and needs.The Blue Jays have a surplus of young, tweener bats like Horwitz and a pile of cash that superstar free agents do not seem to want.The Guardians just made a second baseman, Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in the draft last July, which complicated Giménez's future with the club. Coming out of college, Bazzana shouldn't be too far away.The Pirates are a rare club in baseball with quality, pre-arbitration pitching depth already at the major-league level.All three teams have urgency and notable deficiencies. Toronto is in need of lineup upgrades after a poor season and entering the final year of salary control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.The Guardians are seemingly unable to compete in the free-agent pitching market because of ownership constraints. Meanwhile, their MLB-ready pitching depth has thinned.The Pirates have glaring lineup voids and only so much team control over young ace Paul Skenes, who just earned a full year of service time by winning the National League Rookie of the Year award.Mix it all together and we get Tuesday's deal. It's the kind of trade where there does not have to be clear winners and losers.The headliner is Giménez. Steph Chambers / Getty ImagesThe Blue Jays appear to be doubling down on GM Ross Atkins' run-prevention mantra, which has not gotten them where they want to be the last two seasons. But Giménez is not just a good defender, he's a great one. He was awarded the Platinum Glove in 2023, given to the game's best overall defender regardless of position. He's won the last three American League gold gloves at second base. Giménez leads baseball in defensive runs saved in that span (59). Play No. 9 of 2024: The stretch, the spin, the throw, the pick 🤯An otherworldly sequence by Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor in the ALCS! pic.twitter/j9E1xTjj6p— MLB (@MLB) December 9, 2024 The ban on infield shifts has elevated the defensive importance of second base, as range and arm strength become crucial.Since the new rules were put in place, he's produced 43 DRS at second base, 40 more than the fifth-ranking second baseman, Bryson Stott. That's equivalent to four wins of value.Giménez is still just 26, and there is upside lurking. The big question is whether his bat can rebound to its 2022 level when he hit .297 with an .837 OPS and 140 wRC+ and finished sixth in MVP voting. If it does, the Blue Jays added a star at a discount.But his last two seasons have featured below-average offensive output. He's lost his power and his discipline has waned, though he's reduced his strikeout rate three years running. For his career, he's a 103 wRC+, or a league average hitter. But it's been a bumpy ride.There's reason to think he can improve, add more power, and clean up some swing decisions. But even with those two down seasons, from 2022-24 he produced 12.8 WAR, good for 26th among all position players.In some ways, the Giménez addition is similar to the Jays' addition of Matt Chapman in 2022 - another Platinum Glove winner with an uneven bat.By WAR, they are almost identical players over the last three years. Chapman just signed a six-year, $150-million contract with the Giants.While some believe the nearly $100 million left on Giménez's five-year deal is too rich for a glove-first player, his glove is so good that it fuels a 3-WAR Steamer projection.Giménez also gives the club versatility.He was a shortstop prospect and might be a Gold Glove-caliber defender there should the club eventually part with Bichette. An argument can be made to play Giménez over Bichette at shortstop this season.As for the Guardians, they seem unlikely to add a significant arm in free agency. The oft-injured Alex Cobb, a Guardian last season, just signed a one-year, $15-million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Matthew Boyd left on a relatively modest deal with the Cubs.Moreover, Cleveland's impressive run of pitching development has cooled, so to improve a thin rotation the club had to make a deal. Joe Sargent / Getty ImagesLuis Ortiz is an interesting arm to invest in. The 25-year-old is above average when it comes to fastball velocity and arm-extension metrics, which are difficult skills to improve compared to, say, adding a cutter or breaking ball.The Guardians have a long history of developing and getting the most out of pitchers and believe they can do that with Ortiz, especially in improving his changeup. That could spike his weak strikeout rate.He is poised for a large workload for a team that relied heavily on its bullpen in the playoffs last season. He tossed 135 innings in 2024, ranking 15th among all pitchers 25 or younger.The two prospect arms in the trade, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy, rank in the lower end of the Pirates' top 20 prospects.As for Pittsburgh, Jays fans know how impressive Horwitz's plate approach was last year. The Pirates needed offensive help badly.While he is an older prospect with a limited ceiling because of a lack of elite power, Steamer projects him to be the Pirates' best hitter by wRC+ (119) this coming season. Casey Sykes / Getty ImagesThe Pirates were 24th in runs scored last year and 27th in wRC+ from left-handed batters. Horwitz upgrades the lineup at a pre-arbitration salary.The Pirates also still have Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller in their rotation - though the risk here is that pitching depth is dangerous to trade away.Still, risks need to be taken to elevate a club.Only a handful of teams compete at the high end of free agency. But every front office can make a trade and deal from strength to try and improve.Those transactions make the hot-stove season a little more interesting, too.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

A new report on pitching injuries released Tuesday by the commissioner's office confirms much of what we already suspected about the root causes of the sharp rise in elbow and shoulder injuries. It also makes recommendations on how to potentially reduce the scourge - including radical rule changes - and says that some contrarian thinking may be required to reverse the injury trend.The 60-page report, commissioned after the 2023 season, documents injury rates and skill trends, along with insight from more than 200 interviews with pitchers, coaches, executives, trainers, and orthopedic surgeons explaining what they believe are the underlying causes. theScore was one of the news organizations granted early access to report on the findings. Baseball is concerned not only for its players but what the relentless injury surge means for its on-field product. Losing star pitchers like Spencer Strider to season-ending injuries is a blow to the game. The league office is also concerned about the diminished role of the starting pitcher.MLB found days spent on the injured list by pitchers increased from 13,666 in 2005 to 32,257 in 2024. The study asserts that the pursuit of velocity and max-effort pitching are the "primary forces driving the long-term increase in pitcher injuries." MLB also realizes pitching success has incentivized those efforts to throw harder, which makes solutions difficult to find.!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rBaseball's catch-22 goes something like this: to make a major-league roster, or to be drafted in the first place, pitchers must throw with increasingly more velocity and possess nastier breaking balls. Although this has been highly successful on the field, it requires more force and stress on elbows and shoulders. The pursuit of skill gains leads to more injuries.Players believe they're behaving rationally in accepting the risk-reward trade-off and are simply following incentives."You are well aware of what teams are searching for," says the Cubs' Jameson Taillon, who's undergone two Tommy Johns and who I spoke with recently. "They want high velocity, swing-and-miss stuff. That's where the value is at in today's game. Guys are rightfully chasing that, knowing that is how they are going to get a job and get paid. I think everyone would do the same. That's a thing we talk about in the clubhouse: it's become more competitive than ever to make a team as a pitcher." Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesThe Athletics' Ross Stripling is a decade removed from his Tommy John surgery, which he believes was tied to adding a slider during the 2013-14 offseason to improve his arsenal."I'm throwing my first slider to a hitter (in live batting practice in spring 2014) and my UCL goes," Stripling says. "I was kind of a classic case where a slider led to elbow problems. But I think it's probably worth the risk. If you get hurt, most guys come back from injury."Stripling notes it's been 10 years since his surgery and the slider became an important part of his pitch repertoire."It's not like you're going into (training) thinking, 'If I get Tommy John, that's fine,'" Stripling said. "But at the same time, if I find a heater with 20 vert (vertical inches of movement), and a sweeper with 20 horizontal (inches of movement), getting hurt isn't the end of the road. When you come back, that pitch is there."I do think the risk-reward is worth it to find what we know will lead to success on the field." Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesA player is especially likely to pursue training risks if he believes he's on the fringe of a major-league roster, or of being drafted."Most pitchers now are fungible up-and-down guys who are fighting their ass off for opportunities to stay up, to get enough service to someday make some money," one unnamed executive said in the report. "So, they're trying to redline and hit these levels not even in games, to impress the pitching coaches and get more opportunities. And it's crazy because it's bad for their long-term health and durability."One pitching-development official said in the report: "It is a dogfight to get the last couple spots in the bullpen, and guys are pushing the envelope. Going back to the third day (of the draft), a 14th-rounder, if he stays the same, he's probably got one to two years of minor-league baseball. So, for him, it's a calculated risk of: 'I know I need to get better and push it. Because I know naturally, I don't have it. So, I'm willing to push it and risk getting injured to try to achieve my dream.'"Ron Darling, the former MLB pitcher and current Mets broadcaster, played at a time when it was unheard of to do any serious throwing during the winter. He wouldn't throw a competitive pitch until spring training and never spent any time on the injured list in 13 big-league seasons. But he also believes he'd be responding to incentives like the modern player if he played today."Armed with everything I know now, I would be chasing velocity as well," he told me recently. "Instead of trying to throw 90 mph for two-and-a-half hours, I would try to throw 95 mph for one hour and fifteen minutes. That's just the nature of what it is." Jim McIsaac / Getty ImagesOne data point from the research that interests MLB officials is days lost because of in-season elbow IL stints, which have decreased each year since 2021, by some 110 total instances.However, the number of injuries sustained before the season, mostly during spring training, has nearly doubled from 2017.!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rThat gives some reason for hope. If there's a recurring time on the calendar when injuries most often occur, perhaps that spike can be flattened.A leading theory is that the spring surge is tied to new offseason training practices. If that's indeed the case, it presents another conundrum: How does MLB discourage athletes from wanting to get better on their own time?"I remember my first few seasons with the Pirates," Taillon says. "The big-league throwing calendar, you didn't even pick up a ball until after Thanksgiving. You did not throw a bullpen to mid or late January, and you sure as hell did not face hitters until going to spring training."That's all changed since Taillon was drafted in 2010.With new training regimens and improved technological feedback entering the game over the last decade, it's never been easier to add a new pitch or velocity during offseason training. And if a pitcher isn't doing so, he's not keeping up with the Joneses.Not that long ago, in 2008, the average MLB fastball sat at 91.3 mph. In 2024, it was a record 94.2 mph.But those efforts create more stress even before the season begins."You show up to spring training now with a decent amount of mileage on you, and spring training is a big flip in lifestyle," Stripling says. "There's an intensity you cannot get to in the offseason. You get to spring training and the GM's eyes are on you, the pitching coach's eyes are on you. You ramp up to a level you haven't been to (during the offseason)."Then you start playing spring games. The first game I am pitching in, I am trying as hard as I can. I am throwing as hard as I can." Matt Brown / Getty ImagesA number of orthopedic surgeons quoted in the report say they're seeing record rates of injuries in the MRIs they examine, and they largely believe it's partially tied to new training methods."All the weighted-ball training is a big issue. We had a significantly higher injury rate in people that use weighted balls," one unnamed orthopedic surgeon said in the report. "Is it the ball itself that creates injury? I'm not sure. We always saw guys that would take an abrupt bump in their velocity and those guys always tore their UCL. These guys are throwing too fast for what their body can handle. They're getting paid to get guys out and their injury risk - performance trumps everything else. I don't know how you stop that, though."The report wonders, too, if there's also a paradoxical element to this dilemma in how teams have concurrently tried to protect pitchers.By limiting volume through pitch counts and innings limits in an effort to try and better keep pitchers healthy, the commissioner's office wonders if this approach is also playing a role in injury rates."Conventional wisdom holds that the best way to preserve pitcher health is to manage pitchers conservatively - i.e., fewer pitches and more rest," the report states. "There is, however, a growing consensus that conservative treatment may actually expose pitchers to greater injury risk by encouraging them to throw max effort with every pitch."theScore studied max-effort throwing earlier this year and found the gap between pitchers' maximum and minimum throwing velocities has narrowed. MLB's report found the standard deviation of pitch speeds - for all pitches - is tightening. Max-effort throws of all types are increasing. Kevork Djansezian / Getty ImagesThe increased skill, injury rates, and appetite for risk have trickled down to the amateur level. The report cited the number of high school players to reach 95 mph at Perfect Game National Showcase events. In 2014 there were five. This past year? A record 36."Guys are seeing big leaguers throwing hard in short bursts. The radar gun is in their face more than it ever has been," one college coach said in the report. "I used to appreciate getting outs and having stamina. Kids today know the (velocity) and metrics of every pitch. The last thing that goes on someone's recruitment profile is ERA. It's all velocity, spin rate, vertical break. We are building guys to perform in short spurts. It's a bad formula for longevity and optimal health."Added a youth baseball coach: "They learn how to pitch in three-inning clusters instead of throwing seven innings, 90 pitches in a district game. They spend so much time throwing in three-inning clusters, and I turn on MLB and see them throwing three to four innings. This is select baseball right here. Get us to the fifth and just get us another hard thrower, and another hard thrower. That's what the youth model is conditioning pitchers to be. Max effort. Three innings." John Grieshop / Getty ImagesBut as amateur pitchers chase velocity in hopes of landing a high draft spot and a major signing bonus, the report finds the share of pitchers drafted in the early rounds is in decline.For MLB to nudge incentives to move in a different direction, it may require something as drastic as rule changes.The report recommends exploring this avenue to encourage pitchers to work deeper into games."Experts recommended MLB consider changes to the playing rules and roster rules to create a better system for sustaining pitcher health - a system that would increase the value of pitcher health and durability, and decrease the value of short-duration, max-effort pitching," the report states. "For instance, playing rules could be adjusted or designed to encourage or require starting pitchers to reserve enough energy to allow them to pitch deeper into games."Such rule changes would be designed to increase the value of durable pitchers and incentivize players and clubs to focus on training for durability instead of short-term, max-effort performance." Jamie Schwaberow / Getty ImagesLast summer, MLB floated the idea of a six-inning minimum for starting pitchers, a threshold a starter must meet unless he's injured, allows a certain number of runs, or reaches 100 pitches. Commissioner Rob Manfred threw cold water on that in an interview released Monday, calling such a change "too blunt an instrument."MLB also experimented with the "double hook" rule with its Atlantic League partner, tying the DH to the starting pitcher. (When the starting pitcher departs, the team loses its DH slot.)But in speaking with several pitching coaches and executives this year, there's doubt about how quickly - or if at all - the modern pitcher could adapt to something like a six-inning minimum rule.As we reported in August, the share of starts to reach six innings has fallen off dramatically in recent years.That's also true of the minor-league level, where the percentage of starts to reach five complete innings fell from just under 70% in 2005 to below 40% each year since 2021.Moreover, pitchers selected in their draft years are also throwing fewer innings in college, according to the report. MLB notes that if changes aren't made to encourage healthier development at the amateur level, the injury issue will persist. The report proposes more safeguards are put in place in youth baseball.Darling, too, believes change must begin there. "I would try hard to get at the grassroots level and somehow put some kind of rules and regulation in place," Darling says. "Driveline and all these places are fantastic if used the right way. Like a lot of things, there is a money-making aspect to it. For the crazed parent who thinks their son is going to be the next Nolan Ryan, these kids are being put in a difficult place. But I would begin at the grassroots level because I think, at the MLB level, the genie is out of the bottle."The report paints a clear picture of what's ailing the modern pitcher, but answers remain elusive. Most troubling to those in the game? Maybe there are no obvious solutions."A lot of these (injuries) are Tommy Johns and it's a tiny ligament in your elbow," Stripling says. "Look at Paul Skenes. We are as big, powerful, and as strong as we've ever been. That tiny ligament, how can it hold up? I don't know."Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

The baseball world believes it's unlikely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. forgoes free agency next winter by signing an extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.