Valentin Tataru

Having been a market favourite for the majority of this year, the Polish zloty now seems that it will struggle to rally any further. The more dovish stance from the National Bank of Poland is to blame. We think EUR/HUF can continue to trade in narrow ranges and EUR/CZK, after a brief rally, should be able to break below 25.00 later this year

We expect policymakers to refrain from cutting rates at the October meeting. Although recent disinflation trends provide more policy flexibility, we believe the National Bank of Romania will increasingly focus on robust credit activity and the fiscal outlook. We hold on to our view of no more rate cuts this year, with risks tilted to the downside

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept the policy rate on hold at 6.50%, in line with our expectations. Policymakers highlighted the need for caution due to both internal and external risks. We retain our view that rates will remain in place through year-end, with downside risks at play

While interest rate markets are proving supportive for the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna, the outlook is not so clear-cut for the Hungarian forint, which will remain fragile. Elsewhere, expect investors to continue to chase carry in the Turkish lira. And we are starting to now think that the South African rand can surprise on the upside

Countries in Central and Eastern Europe have avoided the middle-income trap. But there's more work to do

What surprised James Smith this week was just how unsurprising the market’s reaction was to Donald Trump’s landslide election victory. Markets have made their mind up on what his second term means for 2025 and beyond. But 2024 isn’t done with us just yet. It’s another busy week in markets… scream if you want to go faster

Central and Eastern Europe looks vulnerable to Trump’s forthcoming trade war. This is largely a function of the pressure set to be exerted on a weakened Germany and exposure – especially in the Czech Republic and Hungary – to the auto supply chain. The South African rand could outperform based on the domestic story, and the Turkish lira will remain popular

Our latest views on Romania's economy for the rest of this year and next

Divergence is emerging within the CEE space

Bulgarian economy facing pressure from political instability