East Asia Forum

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly over the course of 2024. For the first time in two decades, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea, culminating in a mutual defence pact. As a result of ever-closer relations, North Korea sent 10,000 soldiers to fight alongside Russia against Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region.

The post-9/11 global order has been characterised by eroding international rules, declining US influence and mounting transboundary challenges. For New Zealand, this evolving landscape presents unprecedented foreign policy challenges in 2025. The National-led government faces crucial decisions about joining AUKUS, supporting Ukraine, responding to the Gaza conflict and meeting climate obligations. Wellington must strengthen its defense capabilities, deepen ties with Australia and pursue independent positions on global issues rather than sheltering behind US policies.

On 19 November 2024, a Hong Kong court sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to prison for four to 10 years, citing conspiracy to commit subversion following their participation in unofficial primary elections aimed at gaining opposition leverage in the Legislative Council. The trials and sentences have drawn international criticism from Western democracies, which the Hong Kong government has refuted as ‘untruthful smearing’, confirming Beijing's influence. The case demonstrates the impact of Hong Kong’s increasingly restrictive legal and political climate in undermining civil rights and democratic practices.

The ASEAN–EU strategic partnership needs robust cultural engagement to overcome historical barriers. Both regions can enhance mutual understanding by developing a targeted framework for professional exchanges, digital collaboration and arts initiatives. This approach could create pathways for deeper cooperation, bridging diplomatic divides through meaningful cultural dialogue and people-to-people connections.

Tsaiying Lu Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology

With 12,000 North Korean troops fighting for Russia in the Ukraine war, the Russia–North Korea alliance is only growing stronger. This threatens to destabilise the delicate balance of power in Northeast Asia and may force Japan to turn its attention away from China's expansionism. If Japan is to balance its regional security interests and defence capacity, it must learn to rely on South Korea and the United States to contain North Korea.

The US-China relationship in 2025 is expected to remain largely unchanged from the status quo established in 2008, despite changes in leadership and global circumstances. While improved relations could benefit China's economy and help address internal issues, the risks associated with reengagement and necessary reforms, in the eyes of the Chinese leadership, outweigh the benefits. Meanwhile in Washington, China's policy doesn't seem to be a pressing concern as Trump is more focused on domestic affairs.

The election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States brings with it more global uncertainties, such as the risk of a collapse of the trading regime and failure of climate change endeavours if he proceeds with his planned hike in US tariffs and withdraws from the Paris Climate Agreement. But the scale of the effect, and likelihood of these risks, depend not only on what Trump and his administration do but also on the responses of other countries, particularly China but also key middle powers in Asia and elsewhere, and how effectively they mobilise to respond to such policy actions from Washington.

China’s economy wrestled with both cyclical and secular challenges in 2024, and policymakers were not bold enough tackling either. The secular challenges and the reforms that could combat them have been well known for at least a decade, and a golden opportunity to address them within the Party's formulaic policy cycle was arguably lost in 2024. To reinvigorate the economy, decisive action is needed to reinstate confidence levels. Key areas of focus ought to be boosting domestic consumption, resolving fiscal contradictions and restructuring key industries.

In recent years, the Indo-Pacific region has faced intensifying great power competitions and disturbances, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, but the return of an even more disruptive Donald Trump administration may be its biggest challenge yet. As the United States transforms from the leader of the liberal international order into an insurgent against the system it created, uncertainty is the only certainty.