The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

The most naturally pessimistic Democratic operative could not imagine a scenario more nightmarish than what happened on Tuesday. Conversely, it is doubtful that any Republican pro could have dreamed up the result, at least in the presidential race.

One week before Election Day, The Cook Political Report published a list of 13 swing counties to watch on election night that could give us some clues about the results as votes began rolling in. In the end, President-elect Donald Trump appears poised to carry 12 of the 13 counties we highlighted, with Vice President Kamala Harris ahead solely in Nevada's Washoe County — and by just 423 votes.

Republicans inched closer to control of the House over the weekend after crucial races out west were called in their favor. But they're still a few seats short of a majority, as tight races in California, Arizona, and Alaska have yet to be called.

This may be the most misunderstood election in modern American political history, even given that it came immediately after another misunderstood result in 2022. It was, if anything, a bifurcated election. As horrific as the presidential outcome was for Democrats, those claiming that it was a wipeout haven't looked very closely at what happened below the top of the ballot, where the extraordinary thing is how ordinary the results were.

These are the best of times and worst of times for those of us in the political analysis business. With the election now completed, we finally have real data — not just polling and analytics — to help us better understand what happened. But, it's also not the most accurate data that will ultimately be available. Though most states have completed their vote counts, there are still a lot of outstanding ballots to be tallied, especially in states like Arizona and California. Make sure to follow the Cook Political Report's House and national vote trackers for the latest vote totals.

The 2024 presidential election tells a clear story of a nationwide shift toward the Republican Party. President-elect Donald Trump is on track to improve on his 2020 margin in every single state, and he'll be only the second GOP presidential nominee to win the popular vote since 1988. But despite Trump's win and a four-seat gain for Senate Republicans, the race for theHouse was basically a wash. Republicans are on track for a majority between 220 and 222 seats, almost identical to their current 221-seat majority. Based on an initial scan of historical data, this appears to be the first time in U.S. history that there is no net change in House seats.

Senate Democrats may have lost their majority this cycle, but they did something that the party had never done in the age of Trump: win multiple Senate races in states the former and soon-to-be president carried.

Sooner or later, both marital and political honeymoons come to an end. It's rare, however, for a honeymoon to end before the nuptials have been exchanged. With the nominations of Tulsi Gabbard as national intelligence director, former Rep. Matt Gaetz as attorney general, Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services secretary, President-elect Trump would seem to be trying to cancel the airline and hotel reservations before the ceremony has even commenced.

Every presidential election cycle, a handful of House candidates manage to defy political gravity and win reelection in seats carried by the opposing party's presidential nominee. After the 2020 election cycle, 16 members sat in crossover districts (an all-time low). House Republicans held nine of those seats; House Democrats held seven. Following the 2022 midterms, crossover districts disproportionately skewed toward Republicans: 18 Republicans sat in Biden-won seats, with just five Democrats in Trump-won seats.

Even as the media landscape undergoes rapid changes, there's still no more tried-and-true tactic than broadcast advertising. Television ads remained campaigns' biggest expense in 2024, and the thousands of spots that aired from Atlanta to Alaska met their typical range of success: Many were forgettable, some backfired and a select handful proved decisive.