The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

Although several incoming members of Congress will make history in their own districts and states, this past election cycle brought minimal changes to the demographic makeup of the U.S. House. Men and white Americans continue to make up a greater share of Congress than the national population, even as the House has become considerably more diverse over the past century (and remains more diverse than the upper chamber).

The lengthy leadership standoffs and historic gridlock that paralyzed the 118th Congress have reinforced state legislatures' status as the nation's primary laboratories of public policy. That reputation has been especially well-earned since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization returned the debate over abortion rights — perhaps the country's most charged political lightning rod — to the states.

It's been more than a decade since an incumbent senator was felled in a primary challenge. While allies of Donald Trump are threatening repercussions for any Republicans who step out of line and don't support the incoming president's cabinet picks, toppling a statewide officeholder is historically much more difficult than ousting a House member.

As the calendar flips to the new year, we're closing the books on the 2024 election cycle. This November saw Republicans take back Senate control — but showed us ticket splitting is still alive and well. Ad spending once again broke records. And the incoming Senate is the most polarized ever.

With one particularly stark exception, this year's 11 gubernatorial races largely flew under the radar. It was the first presidential cycle in history in which no governorships changed partisan hands, reflecting an increasingly polarized landscape that only recently began to take a serious toll on the productivity of state governments.

The 2026 midterm-election prospects for the two major political parties in the House and Senate are as different as night and day. The Republican majority in the House today is as precarious as either party has seen in that chamber in at least a century. Conversely, the GOP's majority in the Senate is about as solid as can be, regardless of what President-elect Trump's standing will be in November 2026.

In an era of narrow majorities and subsequent legislative gridlock, every single U.S. House race matters. Ultimately, Republicans maintained their majority by the skin of their teeth, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.

Republicans' success at the ballot box in 2024 was decisive but not overwhelming. The GOP owes its continued control of the House to a mere 7,309 votes spread across three districts. At the presidential level, Donald Trump owes his Electoral College victory to 229,766 voters out of 155.2 million cast. And in the Senate, while Republicans easily picked off Democratic-held seats in the red states of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, they managed to capture just one purple state — Pennsylvania — and by just 15,115 votes.

Exclusively for CPR subscribers, the Editors Roundtable features Cook Political Report analysts discussing the most critical developments and trends driving political coverage.

The good news for President-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda is that his party has unified control of Congress. The not-as-good news is the fact that the Republican majority in the House is the smallest for any party in almost 100 years. And, as we saw in last week's vote for Speaker, a handful of rabble-rousers can disrupt even the best-laid plans.