David Kotok

The first read of 2024Q3 annualized real GDP growth came in at 2.8 percent, about as expected. Click to read.

Short-cycle industrials, such as machinery and distributors, have seen a slowdown in activity. Click to read.

US nonfarm payrolls came in below estimates - up by 12,000. The BLS indicated it wasn't possible to quantify the net effect of hurricanes in some industries. The unemployment rate was 4.1%.

The FOMC will consider new Q3 GDP data, September jobs report, PCE, and CPI inflation indices, and the Beige Book in their upcoming meeting. Click to read.

The correlation between Trump’s election odds and ten-year US Treasury yields suggests market anticipation of higher deficits and inflation with a potential Trump presidency.

France is the latest casualty of unfolding global political events. The spread between the 10-year French govt. bond and 10-year German govt. bond has widened to about 80 bps last week.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 in November, mostly from a recovery from the regional job shock as a result of the fall’s hurricanes and the end of the strike at Boeing.

The overall November CPI rose by 0.3 percent for the month, as did core CPI. Declines in inflation have clearly leveled off at a pace still in excess of the Fed’s 2.0 percent long-term goal.

Going into its last meeting of the year, on December 17th and 18th, the FOMC now has a new jobs report, and the number of jobs created in November is 227,000.

While PCE grew a bit more slowly than expected in November, the most important data in today’s release were PCE (and core PCE) inflation data that were a bit cooler than expected.