Michael Lowry

After taking a slow, horseshoe-shaped dip across eastern Cuba over the past 36 hours and dumping over a foot of heavy rain – causing pockets of significant flooding – poorly-organized Oscar is picking up the pace and accelerating through the southeastern Bahamas and toward the western Atlantic.

Hurricane November US landfalls: Where have they formed and where have they hit? Named storm landfalls in the mainland US are uncommon, but not unheard of

Hurricane Keeping an eye to the Caribbean for next week No development expected in the near term, but that could change by the latter part of next week

Hurricane Quiet end to October after a record-breaking start Tropical development odds nil until at least later next week

Hurricane Tropical development possible in the Caribbean later this week A tropical depression or named storm could form by late week or the weekend, but may meander into next week

We continue to follow the progress of a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean that could consolidate into a tropical depression or named storm later this week as it drifts northward toward the central Caribbean.

Hurricane Forecast models waffle on Caribbean development Forecast models soften development picture, slide development window into next week

As we first detailed in this newsletter last Thursday, a tropical depression or named storm could come together by this weekend or early next week as it meanders around in the central and western Caribbean.

The next storm in the Atlantic is likely to spin up over the weekend or early next week out of the Central American Gyre, or CAG, the semi-permanent, sprawling area of spin that straddles the land areas separating the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea on the Atlantic side -- the same feature responsible for so many of our devastating hurricanes in 2024 -- including the likes of Milton and Helene.

On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean forecast to develop into a named storm in the coming hours, possibly reaching hurricane status before impacting western Cuba by Wednesday.