Tom Coomes

MICHIANA. -- Ask yourself this. What does summer weather sound like? What does winter sound like? What does a forecast sound like? A forecast can be tuned just like a musical instrument.

Temperatures turn colder Tuesday and that's the trend through early December. Tuesday will be fair, a rare day over the next ten days as the permacloud takes hold. There will be a storm system Wednesday - Thursday that moves through the Mid-South. The impacts for Michiana remain minimal. A rain/snow mix is possible at times but the result is still mostly wet. Friday temperatures fall and stay below freezing. This boots the potential for lake effect snow, but the wind direction is more westerly than northwesterly, this would limit impacts for most the area, but southwest Michigan should be prepared for light-to-moderate snowfall. Overall, a major impact for the Thanksgiving weekend is not expected, but it will be colder.

Cloudy, chilly, a few flurries but Thanksgiving Day is mostly uneventful, local travel is unlikely to be impacted. Friday will be much colder, highs in the 20s and lows in the teens by Saturday morning. The wind chill Saturday will stay in the teens. Lake effect snow will have minor impacts to end the week, little snow is expected south of the state line Friday, and only a couple inches in Berrien and Cass counties. Snow will be light but linger across West Michigan through the weekend. Next week remains cold but quiet. We may be brushed by a clipper brining light snow Wednesday and Friday.

Lake effect snow continues overnight, ramping-up after midnight when snowfall could be at its most intense. Travel across Northern Berrien and Cass counties will be difficult if not dangerous, this includes the I-94 and US-31 corridors. The intense snowfall is likely to push into northern St. Joseph County (IN) overnight. Roads could become snow covered for parts of South Bend, Mishawaka, Elkhart and Niles. There will be a sharp cutoff to the south where little snow falls. The lake effect snow will wind-down by noon Tuesday.

There's a lull in the active winter pattern; the next round of lake effect snow is expected Wednesday evening. Temperatures rise above freezing Wednesday as the wind begins to gust out of the southwest. The wind will turn sharply Wednesday night and gust out of the northwest, dropping temperatures into the teens by Thursday morning. This will produce a typical lake effect response. Early estimates call for two to four inches of snow across extreme northern Indiana, and more than four inches in Southwest Michigan. Low visibility could be the greatest hazard, Thursday morning. Wind gusts will top 30 mph. Thursday is a cold and windy day snow or no snow, for everyone. Highs won't make it to 30 degrees and a wind chill in the teens.

Lake Effect Snow returns this evening with strong wind through Thursday. Gusts will top 40 mph and the wind chill will be near zero. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 5PM this evening to 1AM Friday morning.

Winter driving conditions are still likely through tonight, as the snow ends overnight. And additional one to two inches is possible under the lake effect bands. A blustery wind will keep the wind chill in the teens, Be sure to bundle up with layers. Friday morning roads could still have a few slick spots. The rest of the day will bring calmer and sunnier with high temperatures still below the freezing. Temperatures gradually climb through the weekend with highs near 50 degrees by Monday.

Temperatures fall through Thursday. Tuesday will feature seasonable temperatures and clouds with the passage of a cold front. Wednesday, will be quiet most of the day, then an arctic front cuts through by the early evening. That front could bring scattered snow showers. After the front, temperatures drop sharply, falling to the teens, Thursday. The cold air will turn-on the lake effect snow machine. Impacts are expect to be confined mostly to Southwest Michigan and extreme Northern Indiana, as the wind is more west than northwest. The wind will be blustery but unlikely to be severe, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Travel will be most impacted, Thursday morning. The snow "turns-off" quickly as temperatures rebound this weekend. Rain is likely Saturday.

The forecast is much colder Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front Wednesday late afternoon with bring scattered snow showers, followed by arctic air, dropping temperatures into the lower teens by Thursday morning. The cold westerly breeze with turn on the lake effect snow machine Thursday. The wind direction however is not favorable to impact most of the area. Additional snowfall will be mostly confined to Southwest Michigan. Generally, one to three inches are expected near the state line, higher totals northward. The bitter cold only lasts day, temperatures warm back to the 40s this weekend, with rain likely Saturday.

The weather turns colder and more active through the weekend. Tuesday is the best weather day, the rest of the week, sunshine and highs above freezing. Wednesday, starts sloppy with a rain/snow mix but any snow will melt. Thursday is colder but quiet, then Friday is Game Day. Friday is likely to start with light snow in the morning, but ending by the afternoon. It may not snow during the game Friday. A clipper system brings snow early, then we wait on lake effect snow to turn-on later, if the wind turns favorable. Lake effect snow is more likely, Saturday morning. The weekend is cold but Christmas is mild.