Warren Patterson

US corn area is set to increase in 2025 and 2026. However, global ending stocks are still forecast to fall, which means some modest upside to prices through 2025. We see an escalation in trade tensions as a key risk to this view

The global soybean market is set to be well supplied through 2025, which should continue to cap prices. Meanwhile, the potential for escalation in trade tensions is a bearish risk hanging over the market

The European gas market faces several risks heading into 2025, although our balance suggests prices should trend lower next year. Meanwhile, the US gas market is set to tighten, supporting prices

The global oil market is set to return to surplus in 2025 despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. This surplus should see prices trending lower next year. However, there are risks

We expect a modest recovery in EUAs over 2025 with the removal of further free allowances. However, there are demand risks, while supply will remain strong with auction volumes brought forward for REPowerEU

Crude oil is trading with marginal losses this morning after settling higher at the end of last week. Concerns over waning demand in China have largely overshadowed the threats of tighter US and European sanctions on the Russian oil supply

European gas prices came under further pressure as ongoing discussions on Russian gas flows via Ukraine, stronger LNG imports and milder weather forecasts eased any immediate supply concerns. Other commodity prices traded steady this morning ahead of the final Federal Reserve meeting for the year

The oil market has steadied after falling for two consecutive sessions as the latest inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) remain largely supportive. Natural gas rallied after the EU reaffirmed stoppages of Russian flows via Ukraine as scheduled

The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25bp as expected but trimmed its rate cut expectations for 2025, and this has weighed on the commodities complex. Meanwhile, a somewhat soft weekly oil inventory report from the EIA added to downward pressure on the oil market

Crude oil extended its fall in the early trading session today as broader market concerns have weighed on the complex, while a stronger dollar has also added further pressure. Meanwhile, the above-normal inventory draw keeps pushing US natural gas higher