Chinese government officials have urged grain importers to purchase less foreign grain claiming to have ample demand due to weaker demand. CBOT futures shed modest premium following better-than-expected rainfall in portions of MO, Southeast IA, and Northern Il. China has confirmed it's plan to keep barley/sorghum imports slow until their corn harvest is nearly completed to prop up domestic prices. Ag Resources (ARC) expects that China secures 20-24 MMT's of corn in 2024/25 – the difficult question is who will be the supplier – the US, Argentina or Brazil. Price will determine from whom China secures corn later this year. China's domestic corn premiums vs. offers are historically elevated ($3.40+/Bu), and ARC reiterates total world trade through late August is record large by a wide margin. Global feed grain demand growth is intact into 2025. The corn story is unchanged. US ethanol production, exports and production margins remain elevated. Competition from South America, Ukraine, and Russia is down sharply from last year. Seasonal trends as well as fundamental input support a bottom. Midwest foliar diseases could pull the US corn yield below 180 BPA the final. Following September liquidation, who is left to sell corn futures at 4-year lows – not the US farmer. Corn is forming its seasonal/annual low.
Dan Flynn is the Editor-In-Chief of Food Safety News, a publication that focuses on providing news and analysis on food safety issues. With his extensive experience in journalism, Dan covers a wide range of topics related to food safety, including regulations, inspections, and industry developments. His work has been featured in various publications, showcasing his expertise in the field.