Tim Donner

The constant refrain from media on all sides is that the presidential race, now a month and a day from its conclusion, is tighter than a drum, a toss-up, on a razor's edge – choose your cliche. This widespread belief is almost entirely based on national polls, in which Kamala Harris leads, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. And surveys in the seven swing states, all but certain to decide the outcome, show a dead heat between Harris and Donald Trump.

Polls across the board continue to show a very tight race for president, and while these surveys have been inaccurate at times in the past, the outcome most are predicting could still be in the cards. But sometimes, one must dispense with metrics in favor of the simple eye test to determine where a race is headed. Put another way, who will believe, professional pollsters or your lyin' eyes? The candidacy of Kamala Harris was already tenuous when she was selected by default to stand in for Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket. But now you can see for yourself in real time that the veil she has managed to place over herself – with the vital assistance of big media – is being pierced.

Eight years ago, it was all but unthinkable that Donald Trump could count on any significant support from two constituencies traditionally hostile to Republicans and crucial to Democrats. After his trip down that golden escalator, he delivered remarks about illegal immigrants that were widely viewed as insulting. They would be replayed over and over, destined to live in infamy. Most observers believed that he had permanently repelled minority voters and that the minimal support Republican presidential candidates had received over the years from Latino and black voters would shrink even further to almost undetectable levels.

Kamala Harris ventured to the belly of the beast Wednesday evening (Oct. 16) for an interview with Bret Baier of Fox News. Some say it

three states of winning a second term. Thus, we can reasonably conclude that election polls and predictions should be taken with

But what about Donald Trump? How much would his prospective second term be different from his first? Well, quite a bit

with just days to go until all votes are cast, the behavior of Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and down-ballot candidates on both sides

By Tim Donner There are many ways to judge the state of a presidential or Senate race beyond the tsunami of polls we attempt to process in the run-up to Election Day.

Between the blizzard of polls, pundits, and partisanship, most of the attention paid to the 2024 presidential election is understandably based on voters’ assessments of the relative merits of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And while that process, however tortured it may be, provides a framework for the electorate to scrutinize this election’s diametrically opposed […]