Yawen Chen

Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the group's central headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Imagine the scene. It is September 2025, and U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping emerge from the former’s palatial mansion into the Florida sun to announce the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”. Forty years after the United States and its trade adversaries signed the Plaza Accord in New York’s Plaza Hotel to sanction a concerted devaluation of the dollar, the world’s two superpowe

Patrick Pouyanné is used to coping with tricky circumstances in emerging markets. The TotalEnergies CEO was one of the few western bosses to attend Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative in 2018 in the immediate aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder by Saudi agents. And he took his time to pull out of Russia after its war with Ukraine. Even so his company’s close relations with Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, who is facing U.S. bribery charges, still constitute a challenge.

Israel and Hezbollah’s peace deal is a key step on the path to a calmer Middle East – and, in theory, lower oil prices. On Tuesday, the U.S. and France managed to broker an agreement which reduces one aspect of crude’s geopolitical risk premium. But Iran and Donald Trump’s presidency are significant and ongoing countervailing forces.

European oil majors are bulking up in the choppy waters of the North Sea. Shell and Norway’s Equinor are combining their UK oil and gas assets in a joint venture that will become the country’s largest independent producer. It’s a defensive move that shields them from the Labour Party’s punishing policies. It could also pave the way for an easier exit.

Hungary is digging for golden visas. Despite pressure from the European Union, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán re-launched a residency-by-investment programme in July. Overall, though, these schemes’ shine is fading because they add little to GDP, inflate house prices and irk locals. Geopolitical risks may spur demand as more rich expats look for safe havens. That could be an opportunity for governments to charge more. But a better option would be to nix these programmes altogether.

Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman each have contradictory objectives in 2025. The U.S. president-elect wants to apply “maximum pressure” on Iran, but won’t want the spike in oil prices that may accompany it. The Saudi crown prince is sick of forgoing oil revenue by pumping 3 million barrels below his 12 million barrel daily capacity – but will be wary of a price crash if he opens the taps. Even so, there’s a way for their bromance to bloom.

Europe’s top fashion houses will reluctantly conclude that high profit margins are a luxury they can no longer afford in 2025. The likes of LVMH , Kering and Chanel aggressively hiked prices on handbags, shoes and jackets during the pandemic. As demand from Chinese consumers rapidly cools, CEOs will be forced to rethink.

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

Donald Trump wants to sell Europe more gas. That sounds doable: the European Union needs more of it. And the trade might discourage the U.S. president-elect from slapping a 10% tariff on European goods which could, per Citi, shave 0.3 percentage points off a euro zone economy only set to grow 0.5% in 2025. Yet an accelerated pivot isn’t guaranteed.